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Thread: canadian vs us dollar ?'s

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    God/dess sassysummer's Avatar
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    Default canadian vs us dollar ?'s

    ok, i'm wondering if anyone here knows what the expected trend is in the next few months re: canadian vs us dollars? I'm going to be getting a boob job in canada and I've noticed that it's about $300(usd) more expensive than it was about 5 months ago...I don't understand all the jibberish on the financial websites..sooooo can someone break it down to me in lamens terms??? is it gonna cost even more if I wait a few more months?

    thanks!





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    God/dess montythegeek's Avatar
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    Default Re: canadian vs us dollar ?'s

    Sassy,
    Today a C$ cost 87cents and 5 months ago it cost 82 for a 6% appreciation in the C dollar ve the greenback. To tack another 6% on it would make it 92 which is above a likely gain, but something close to 90 cents is entirely possible. The Canadian dollar has even been strong versus the Euro, so it ain't just the US. As discussed in the tread with the lady going to Europe, there are low cost ways to hedge your bets, like paying bill in advance, and buying some Canadian dollars from the bank or AAA. In your case, you might consider paying for some of the bill now, if the plan is definite, or prepay a hotel bill if the dates are known for sure. There are no guarantees that it will save you money, but may calm your fears of another $200-300 price rise.

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    Default Re: canadian vs us dollar ?'s

    You def. won't lose out by paying sooner.

    Do they give you quotes in US and Canadian funds? If so, get your money exchanged at the Vancouver bullion, and pay in CAD. Unless it works out that the Dr. hasn't calculated in an exchange fee, which is unlikely.

    Oh wait, I'm just assuming you're doing it in Van... get it exchanged somewhere with low commissions, anyways.

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    Default Re: canadian vs us dollar ?'s

    i'm going to vancouver, bc (i actually live in vancouver, wa). so I should exchange it there? He gave me a quote in cad.





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    God/dess scarlett_vancouver's Avatar
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    Default Re: canadian vs us dollar ?'s

    Well, it might be better for you to change in WA- the vancouver bullion & exchange has the best rates I've found so far (http://www.vbce.info/), but if you find a better rate in Seattle then obviously go for it!

    What doctor are you seeing?

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    Default Re: canadian vs us dollar ?'s

    Arguably, the exchange rate value of the CDN$ is indirectly tied to the price of oil, gas, gold, copper, nickel and other commodities because Canada produces and exports those commodities. On the flip side, the major US export is more and more US dollars (actually US Treasury bonds promising that American children's tax dollars will eventually pay for the things Americans are importing today). Thus from a 'fundamental' standpoint, the US$ is likely to fall against the CDN$ as well as other world currencies over the long term.

    But in the short term, lots of 'manipulation' can and probably will take place to support the US dollars' exchange rate i.e. FED interest rate hikes, central bank intervention in the currency / futures markets. Thus if you're talking a matter of months not years anything can happen.

    There are also two other factors to consider about the price of a Canadian boob job. First is that the implants are NOT manufactured in Canada but in the USA thus they are ultimately priced in US dollars. Second is that the costs of medical treatment for Canadians in Canada are more or less regulated by the Canadian Gov't, thus one of the few legal avenues open to Canadian doctors to earn extra money is to overcharge Americans.

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    Default Re: canadian vs us dollar ?'s

    At work we always advice people traveling abroad to use their credit cards mostly if they can. The conversion is immediate.

    If you cant, like Scarlett said, change your money at the boarder the day you arrive. When you come back if you have any left over currency exchange it at the same place for the most current and honest rate.

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    God/dess montythegeek's Avatar
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    Default Re: canadian vs us dollar ?'s

    Melonie is correct that the outlook for a specific point in time 5-6 months in the future is very vulnerable to events of the time (not just interventions, but politics as well). Scarlett exhibits the typical human belief that the home-country's currency being strong is a good thing and the natural tendancy of humans to believe that a recent trend will continue indefinitely. The real world is not so nice.

    Countries whose currency goes up can buy things abroad cheaper, but their stuff is more expensive for foreigners to buy. The C$ has appreciated against both the dollar and the euro in the last 4 years, so much so that it should soon start to hurt on Canada's international competitiveness. Add the fact that the exports of natural gas to the US are going to tank given the overhang of nat gas in inventory from a record-warm January, and a slow down in housing hurting lumber exports, and the environment for a stalling of the C$ is complete.

    I am not arguing that the loonie is going to fall against the greenback, just that there is a major risk that it COULD--at the time you want to get the operation. My sincere recommendation is that you hedge your risks as I outlined above by prepaying part of the trip.

    PS: as for intervention in the exchange markets, be aware that the major risk is the Canada interfers to drive down its loonie from getting too high, rather than the US does it. The US has few advantages in manipulating the loonie lower--we like some Canadians being priced out of the market and the natural resources we buy from Canada are priced in greenbacks, not loonies.

    PPS: A political case can be made for a bilateral intervention as the new Primeminister in Canada is more conservative than the last, more liked by the current White House, and is in a somewhat shaky situation with a minority government. The US could move to support them, and keep the lonnie from getting "too strong-too fast". Again this would be both US and Canada acting together.

    HEdge your bets.

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    Default Re: canadian vs us dollar ?'s

    I agree completely with Monty as to the politicalization of the US$:CDN$ exchange rate in the near term. If it appears that Stephen Harper has a chance of holding together a gov't which is going to be somewhat secure plus somewhat in agreement with Washington in regard to issues of national security / middle east / 'conservative' trade issues, then yes there is every chance that the US will 'help' Canadians by keeping the exchange rate low thus keeping Canadian manufactured exports high thus keeping Canadian automakers, durable goods makers, lumber and beef industries busy.

    On the other hand, if it appears that Jean Chretien and Paul Martin are not politically 'dead', such that a new 'liberal' gov't could be in place in Canada within the next few months, then the 'tin foil hat' crowd has it that the US central bank is prepared to buy Canadian Dollars until the exchange rate is 1 : 1, which will very probably price Canadian exports (ex raw materials and energy which as Monty says are priced in US$ anyhow) right out of the world market and throw Canada into a nasty recession. So in essence, the future price of your BC boob job (and arguably the future economic health of Canada) is at the mercy of voters in Ontario and Quebec !

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    God/dess montythegeek's Avatar
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    Default Re: canadian vs us dollar ?'s

    Melonie,
    The Fed and the Treasury have not intervened in the Forex market since Sept 22 2000 when they propped the Euro in concert with the EU, Canada, and Japan.
    http://www.newyorkfed.org/newsevents.../fx060202.html
    See archives at the bottom for prior periods.
    Since the reports are required by law, if they have done otherwise in the past 5+ years, they are perjurers. There is zero significance to a 1:1 $/C$ exchange rate, anymore than there was to penny parity on the Yen or 1:1 on the Euro. If I remember my history right, the last time the lonnie was 1:1 was something like 1967.

    An exchange rate is a relative price, like the price of apples versus the price of hamburger--nothing more or less. Except in significant cases, intervening in exchange rates is almost ALWAYS a money losing proposition==bigtime money losing. Governments have a lot of muscle, but markets always win in the long run. It is so expensive that it cost a Japanese PM his job.

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    Default Re: canadian vs us dollar ?'s

    The Fed and the Treasury have not intervened in the Forex market since Sept 22 2000 when they propped the Euro
    Again we're back to the accuracy of 'official' gov't statistics. Where do you suppose the billions and billions of dollars worth of US bond purchases by 'Caribbean Investors' is really coming from ?

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    Default Re: canadian vs us dollar ?'s

    Scarlett exhibits the typical human belief that the home-country's currency being strong is a good thing and the natural tendancy of humans to believe that a recent trend will continue indefinitely. The real world is not so nice.
    What in the hell are you talking about? I said no such thing.

    I have more savings in USD than CAD- I'm dying for your dollar to gain so I can finally feel justified in switching it over! Will it likely happen in the few months timeframe given by summer? Uh, no. That has nothing to do with my quaint Canadian beliefs. You can say that the trend is likely to reverse, and we can meet back here in a few months and see who was right, OK?

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    Default Re: canadian vs us dollar ?'s

    Scarlett, my dear.
    I was referring to "You def. won't lose out by paying sooner." as an assertion that the c$ would rise. Perhaps I misunderstood that. If so, it was my mistake. There is nothing "definite" in markets, ever, except that they will be open.

    Second, I NEVER said the Canadian dollar would weaken over the next 6 months. I do not suspect it will, or that if it did it would be enough to matter. My sole points were that it COULD, and such things are not one-way bets, even when there is a strong trend. As you will recall from the post right above the one quoted, I cautioned that the safe course of action was to hedge your bets.

    The human nature comment is not a reflection of anything to do with you, or Canada, or anything else, but that 95% of all people in all countries (including my own) think having a strong currency is sign of "national strength".

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    Default Re: canadian vs us dollar ?'s

    Is Canada getting credit for having vast amounts of oil locked up in oil sand in Alberta on the currency markets? Any idea what the gas price per gal. has to be to make extraction of
    oil from oil sands feasible? Of course if gas price gets too high, more supply will appear from these unlikely sources and may make it unfeasible to exract the oil. There is quite a bit of oil trapped in the oil sands area in a not to easy to refine format.

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    God/dess montythegeek's Avatar
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    Default Re: canadian vs us dollar ?'s

    Niceguy. Oil sands have been a fact of life since the 1970s. Syncrude has been producing since 1978(and is not the only) and has shipped well over a billion barrels. There are no surprises on this score.
    http://www.syncrude.ca/who_we_are/01_03.html

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    Default Re: canadian vs us dollar ?'s

    But does syncrude (oil sands leading limited partnership, no common stock available), actually make money? Is it recently that they have made money when gas hit over $2.00
    per gal.?

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    Default Re: canadian vs us dollar ?'s

    ookay...so boobs in a couple months or boobs after summertime ... lol





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    Default Re: canadian vs us dollar ?'s

    Quote Originally Posted by Niceguy
    But does syncrude (oil sands leading limited partnership, no common stock available), actually make money? Is it recently that they have made money when gas hit over $2.00
    per gal.?
    Syncrude says it is competitive at $18/bbl C$ (FAQ section). Another competitor. Western oil sands, made money in 2003 (per annual report--did not check earlier).
    NG, forget using the price of gasoline as a reference point because gas taxes put a wedge between the price consumers pay and the price the producer gets. Since the cost structure is different than most crude, even this is a moving target,

    These folks have been doing this for over 20-25 years, so it is not a hobby or PR stunt. IT is real. It is high volume, and makes sense. Colorado oil shale is more vulnerable to prices than Canada because it costs more to produce it.

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    Default Re: canadian vs us dollar ?'s

    Monty- ok, no hard feelings. By 'definite', I meant 'most likely'. I always exagerrate like that .

    Summer- I'd say sooner, because 1. the best docs have year-long waiting lists, and 2. their prices go up pretty much constantly.

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    Default Re: canadian vs us dollar ?'s

    scarlett, have you heard of this guy here.. http://www.skinworks.ca/ Dr Carr. He's the one I'm thinking of going to... He's got a very nice resume.

    A year long!!! I can't wait THAT long!!! AAGGHHH!! Maybe I should email and ask if there is a waiting list!

    OT, when are you coming down this way? Did you still want a pole? We have "chrome" look ones now! He's gonna make me one for my house so I can get some pics..I can't wait to see these!





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    Default Re: canadian vs us dollar ?'s

    Heya- you know what, I've never heard of Dr. Carr! I guess he's just not one of the ones that dancers normally go to...Warren, Pugash, Fitzpatrick, Mosher, Clugston, Kerluke...but not Carr!

    Yes, I do still want a pole, and my trip to PDX is delayed until there is a weekend in which Paris' revue will be practicing, Stars can put me on schedule, and Paris has time to hang out with me . Probably late March now. I might just bite the bullet and get a pole shipped, but I'm always getting f'ed by customs, so I'm leery.
    I'm an annoying customer, sorry! Don't worry, I'll let you know in enough time when I want it.

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    Default Re: canadian vs us dollar ?'s

    The reason I'm looking at him is because he's got a lot of experience with the cohesive gel implants...i'm hoping someone there has them so I can feel lol

    No you're not annoying! lol I'm dying to see Paris' revue! Definatly let me know when you're comin down and I'll see if I can come visit..I've never been to stars in salem.

    I'm hoping that I'll be selling my other business soon...if I do within the next couple of weeks I'll be coming up to Vancouver to see that doctor for a consult..and maybe visit a club or two there, I've heard it's quite different in Canada than in Oregon! So if I end up coming up before you come down I can just bring one with me.

    I'm getting a "chrome" one tomorrow! I can't wait to see it! I can't do anything on it though still have to heal a bit more. oh well





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