Just wanted to know if anyone has heard of this and what are your opinions ?





Just wanted to know if anyone has heard of this and what are your opinions ?





Gorilla Trades is one of several 'proprietary' investment models/systems available which offer basic stock information and analysis plus stock picks based on their 'proprietary' predictive model. The basic concept is no different than subscribing to an 'old fashioned' paid subscriber investment newsletter.
As with any of these paid services, the accuracy (and profitability) of their stock picks depends hugely on the 'leading indicator' factors selected for use in the model. Unfortunately, like the old adage about generals planning to refight the last war, many investment models are weighted towards market factors that applied to past stock market conditions and not necessarily current stock market conditions.
Personally speaking, one of the more reliable 'proprietary' indicators - and one which has saved me from major stock market losses in the past - is aptly referred to as the 'Hindenberg Omen' ... and happens to be waving a big red flag right now !
Last edited by Melonie; 04-25-2006 at 03:36 PM.




http://www.safehaven.com/article-3882.htm theory explained
http://www.safehaven.com/showarticle.cfm?id=3880 << "improved theory"
from the second link:
The Dow lost a little ground at the beginning of October, but has gained nearly what looks like about 10% just using a yahoo graph since then.During the past two weeks, we have had six Hindenburg Omen signals by the traditional definition, and based upon the research I am about to share with you, I would say we have had five signals as I have added two more filters to its qualification. Still quite a significant cluster.
The method is about the most crackpot thing I've ever heard, you are better of watching cyclicals 50 and 100 day moving averages.





there's also another 'proprietary model' which you might enjoy - the Bradley Model ... which called for a market 'turn' at the beginning of this month, and is predicting a MAJOR market turn around May 20th.
my point here is that ALL 'proprietary' and non-proprietary models are subject to criticism, including your moving average cyclicals and Gorilla.





Okay thanks for the input I just dont have the time to put into all the research that it takes for the stock market its nice to have someone else do the research for you . I am sure there is not a stock market investor who hasnt lost money or made a bad call .





Absolutely true ... both in the case of investors making their own stock trading decisions, and those relying on the 'paid proprietary advice' of investment services !I am sure there is not a stock market investor who hasnt lost money or made a bad call .
Do NOT buy trading software expecting it to make your investment decisions for you. If you are someone with money to put in the market and don't want to spend the time researching companies yourself (realistically, probably even if you DO) you should just find the lowest-cost stock index mutual fund you can find and put your money in it.
"All this time you were pretending
So much for my happy ending."
--Avril Lavigne




I don't know about ever, but my whole family has used the same broker with ML for nearly 20 years. He has averaged just over 12% over that time without a single loser/down year.Originally Posted by CuriousJ





I'm trying to say this in an objective manner ... a 12% pre-tax return on investments involving real risk SUCKS ! Sure it beats the hell out of earning 3% on a bank savings account or earning 5% on a CD or earning 7% on a bond, but these sort of investments don't (until GM at least) involve taking a risk of losing value on the principal you invested. If you're going to put your principal at risk, and if you have 1/2 a brain in regard to reading the news and not 'following the herd', a 25% annual return is more like it and a 15% return should be downright easy (see 'hot tip' thread for instance).
~
Last edited by Melonie; 04-26-2006 at 12:28 PM.




I agree with you, however he manages everything but my personal checking accts.Originally Posted by Melonie
When it comes to 'systems' (as in proprietary stuff that you buy, as opposed to advice/theories/models that can be examined to see their strengths and weaknesses), I swear by the tried and true adage:
If his system was as good as he says it is, he'd be trading with it... not selling it!!![]()





I used Janus funds and PBHG and really did not do very well now that I think about it I did better on stocks that I decided to buy on my own that were not part of group of funds . I'm really kind of waiting for the real estate bubble to burst which I think it will in the next year or so . Then I will purchase another home and hold on to it . I am planning on a relocation in the next ten years to a place that has cooler summers . The house I am in now is a partial nest egg for me and if all goes well it will be worth well over 900k when I decide to sell .





yup, exactly !If his system was as good as he says it is, he'd be trading with it... not selling it!!
In fact, anyone who does have a reasonably effective 'proprietary' system is 'working against themselves' by offering it to other investors. A good portion of potential profits from stock trades involve making moves which are different from what the 'herd' is doing at a particular time. By offering a 'proprietary' system to others, who will all receive the same 'buy' or 'sell' signal at the same time, the original lone investor gradually becomes a new 'herd' !




The only true system that works is autonomous arbitrage, ala Zero Coupon.





Do you think the bottom will fall out of the real estate market in the next year or two ? I still have a few stocks that I am holding onto until I turn 52 ( is that the age I can get my 401 I forgot ) . I am in my 40s now and I tend to want less risky investments as my earning years are going tail off in the next 10 -15 yrs .When I was making good money and younger ( spending years ) I did all kinds of risky ventures and mind you it was fun at the time but now I must think about my future and how I would like to spend my golden years ( my god did I say golden years lol ) . So any of you forty + people how did you start to change your thinking and apply it to your near future ? Hope this isnt too far off my original topic .





if you're asking for the strictly amateur opinion of a 'dumb blonde with big tits', then my opinion on the future of real estate has been sprinkled through many other DD threads. In a nutshell, my personal take on the future real estate value situation is this ...
- all real estate is location sensitive i.e. sensitive to local economic conditions. Thus there are big geographic variables to consider i.e. the market for a house in MA or NV right now is clearly in decline, while the market for houses in the midwest is rising.
- stats in the news show that the USA is on an overall 1% mortgage default rate this year, with particular regional rates being higher. This means that 1 of every 100 houses is already going to wind up being put up for 'distress sale'.
- stats also show that some 40% of recently written mortgages are ARM's - and some 1.6 TRILLION dollars worth of ARM mortgages are scheduled to age beyond the 'introductory' interest rate either this year or in 2007. A 2% jump in interest rates typically translates into a 22% increase in monthly payment on a 30 year mortgage. In conjunction with rising gasoline prices, rising gas/oil heating costs, rising electric bills, rising property taxes etc. this may significantly increase the 2007 mortgage default rate beyond the 1 in 100 already being experienced.
- Ben Bernakke was in the news today indicating to Congress that the Fed may continue jacking interest rates to combat inflation. At the same time longer term T-bond interest rates are now above 5% and rising. This strongly implies that mortgage interest rates will continue to rise as well, pricing more and more would-be buyers out of the market. To exacerbate the situation, new fed banking rules are requiring mortgage lenders to 'clean up their act' in regard to checking creditworthiness of would-be borrowers. All of this is shrinking the available pool of qualified home buyers.
Bottom line on the real estate market in my own mind ... unless you're in an area with a stable economy and a comparatively underpriced real estate market, there's major risk of a downturn.
In regard to a 401k, I believe that age 59 1/2 is the magic number. However, unless you are still working for the original 401k employer, there are lots of options available to let you sell 'dog' stocks and reinves the proceeds into something better, and still stay within a tax free retirement account umbrella.
As far as 'changing my thinking' past age 40, the only real change was that I realized I have very few years left to make a great deal of money for my retirement. I also realized that the gov't is going to be in such deep fiscal trouble 25 years from now that I can't depend on them for s#!t ! In fact, the gov't will probably change the rules such that they'll try to get their hands on part of my retirement money, thus increasing the need to earn more money even more important! Thus the conventional wisdom of sticking with 'play it safe' low risk low return investments ain't gonna cut it.
The seller would also be able to profit from that in and of itself. You could even do that with not-so-good system. Hmmm... I profit once from the sale and once from the system's effects. Bingo!!Originally Posted by Melonie
Note: We're ignoring the myriad of practical problems with this...![]()





not if you're greedy enough ... this could actually work ... i.e. selling your 'proprietary system' to 10,000 greedy but economically uneducated people, and then trading the markets in an exactly OPPOSITE manner than your 'proprietary system' recommends !The seller would also be able to profit from that in and of itself. You could even do that with not-so-good system. Hmmm... I profit once from the sale and once from the system's effects. Bingo!!
Note: We're ignoring the myriad of practical problems with this...
I wonder if BooYah Cramer buys call options for the stocks he's about to tout when his show airs later in the day ?




It would have to be at arms length, but is entirely possible. However, he was advertising his trades "before" he made them a few years ago, I'd have to dig that info up.Originally Posted by Melonie
Cramer had a great publicity-based strategy for trading when at his hedge fund, but I think these days he doesn't personally profit from his recommendations. He definitely shills for his friends' stocks on occasion though.
"All this time you were pretending
So much for my happy ending."
--Avril Lavigne





I watched that Cramer guy a few times he really has some energy lol . He gives out free advice all the time . Even though people sell their ideas I dont think they are all trying to scam people out of their money they have come up with a system they think will benefit those who are real beginner investors and like I said many people dont have time to do the research etc .
Be that as it may, it's a virtual guarantee that any stock he touts during his afternoon show will cause a major price increase on the 'after hours' ticker ... positive proof of the 'herd' mentality dominating a significant number of investors.Yes, he's amazing. And knowledgeable. And has been very successful. He's a great entertainer and a successful investor. But nobody should watch his show hoping to get individual stock tips--that way lies ruin.
~
Last edited by Melonie; 04-28-2006 at 04:11 PM.
"All this time you were pretending
So much for my happy ending."
--Avril Lavigne
Actually, Cramer does diss the occasional company by comparing it unfavorably to a different company he is touting ! But if Cramer (or any other American financial talking head for that matter) were to emanate a tone that US stock markets might actually go down, it would probably put him in the most serious trouble with his own producers and media company management !Cramer should start dissing companies too. That way he can buy puts as well!
On second thought, that wouldn't be good for his image. Not to mention someone showing up and causing him bodily harm...
~
Last edited by Melonie; 04-30-2006 at 06:21 AM.
Melonie,
Did you edit my last quote when you meant to quote it?
I agree with your comment--I would almost say it myself!![]()
"All this time you were pretending
So much for my happy ending."
--Avril Lavigne





yes I did Lurker, sorry ... and once I discovered that I had hit edit instead of reply, your original message was already edited so there was no way to undo the damage ! At any rate, the point still comes across.
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