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    Default International Alarms ringing re the US Dollar ...


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    Veteran Member StuartL's Avatar
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    Default Re: International Alarms ringing re the US Dollar ...

    Interesting. I hadn't seen it. Not much of a surprise though...

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    Default Re: International Alarms ringing re the US Dollar ...

    here's even more bad news ...



    Basically, the article states that Chinese companies have been operating at a loss lately due to the very rapid price increases in their raw materials and energy. Thus they will have no choice but to raise prices on exported goods, and will also be under heavy pressure to revalue the Yuan upward to make oil, steel, copper etc. cheaper in Yuan terms. This will be a double whammy to US consumers and to foreign holders of US dollar denominated investments.

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    Default Re: International Alarms ringing re the US Dollar ...

    Seems like China is our manufacturing arm. Cheap consumer goods are just too tempting, even with China's very poor worker conditions, rampant pollution, human rights abuses, copyright and trade secret abuses, and a lassez-faire government economic policy. No wonder they can do it so cheaply. Oh well, I guess we need that shot in our collective arms to maintain our current lifestyle of giving our country and livelihoods away.
    I loved going to strip clubs; I actually made some friends there. Now things are different for the clubs and for me. As a result I am not as happy.

    Customers are not entitled to grope, disrespect, or rob strippers. This is their job, not their hobby, and they all need income. Clubs are not just some erotic show for guys to view while drinking.

    NOTE: anything I post here, outside of a direct quote, is my opinion only, which I am entitled to. Take it for what you estimate it is worth.

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    Default Re: International Alarms ringing re the US Dollar ...

    ^^^ hopefully some people do realize that US businesses will 'vote with their feet' in the same way that individuals will when faced with high taxes, expensive and strict regulations, high 'cost of living' expenses (cost of doing business) etc.

    Also, from the viewpoint of some, moving manufacturing out of the USA and replacing relatively 'expensive' domestically manufactured products with very cheap Chinese products has a number of benefits. It certainly enables the US gov't to spend less on unemployment and social welfare costs, by making many of the 'basics' much cheaper. It also 'exports' pollution, future pension obligations etc. The latest chapter in 'the rich get richer while the poor get poorer'.

    However, the 'competitive edge' of Chinese products is likely to be reduced significantly as the US$ devalues because the Yuan has been manipulated to track the US dollar exchange rate. This has meant that Chinese companies are seeing the same sort of cost increases in global commodities that we are (i.e. oil, steel, copper, aluminum), that their manufacturing cost has risen to the point of killing profits, and that a Yuan revaluation is highly likely in order to reduce global commodity prices in terms of Yuan to restore those profits. But the direct consequence will be a stiff US$ denominated price increase for imported Chinese products.

    Another direct consequence for global investors will likely be a shift of 'hot money' and manufacturing facilities away from China towards even lower cost nations like Vietnam.

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    Default Re: International Alarms ringing re the US Dollar ...

    This is sort of related ... for about 9 months I dated a Chinese in Brussels. Very bright girl, had an MBA, fluent in Madarin, English and learning both French and Dutch.

    When I asked about investments in China and things like accounting policies, transparency, R&D spending etc, she said ' no need for research, we take apart and copy '. There you have it - government and industrial policy in China as it relates to copyright infringement!!

    How do you compete with that?

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    Default Re: International Alarms ringing re the US Dollar ...

    Quote Originally Posted by StuartL
    This is sort of related ... for about 9 months I dated a Chinese in Brussels. Very bright girl, had an MBA, fluent in Madarin, English and learning both French and Dutch.

    When I asked about investments in China and things like accounting policies, transparency, R&D spending etc, she said ' no need for research, we take apart and copy '. There you have it - government and industrial policy in China as it relates to copyright infringement!!

    How do you compete with that?

    Ya don't.

    And don't expect to make any money off of your ideas either.

    So just sit around, drink beer, smoke pot and enjoy the sunshine by the grill.

    America is dead.

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    Featured Member Vamp's Avatar
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    Default Re: International Alarms ringing re the US Dollar ...

    Deogol please don't say that America is dead.

    Maybe I am just an idealist, but I dont see America as dead. America is just lost. Imagine what the folks during the great depression felt, the folks during WWII, the folks during the revolutionary war, and during the civil war. We are not faced with that large of scale of challenages. Not yet anyway. If they can make it thru so can we. Times of change are never easy.

    I am praying for some real leadership in this country. I remeber my grandma talking about FDR as if he was god long after he died.

    Hope should never be lost; just transformed.
    Last edited by Vamp; 06-03-2006 at 08:11 PM.

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    Default Re: International Alarms ringing re the US Dollar ...

    trying to keep my commentary on the financial side, FDR became a 'god' to most poor Americans in the 30's and 40's because he was the first president to ...

    ... officially devalue the US$ internationally (broke the gold standard) thus creating serious US inflation for the first time
    ... borrowed huge amounts of money internationally + printed 'unbacked' dollar bills in order to pay for the first US social welfare programs (to theoretically be paid off by future american taxpayers)
    ... maneuvered the US into WW2 (check history re pre-war US-Japan relations/developments) in order to stimulate the US economy via war material based gov't spending and reducing unemployment by sending millions of unemployed americans off to foreign countries with a rifle in their hands.
    ... establishing America as the only remaining western 'imperial power' after ordering the wholesale destruction of manufacturing facilities in Germany, Japan and other countries, plus establishing a virtual monopoly on middle eastern oil supply (check history Grand Mufti).

    thus it is arguable that much of the present state of the US economy is directly traceable to the economic principles begun by FDR, with the gov't debt, inflation etc. being rolled over from one year/decade to the next ever since.
    ...

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    Featured Member Vamp's Avatar
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    Default Re: International Alarms ringing re the US Dollar ...

    The policies FDR implimented saved everyone at that time; not just the poor. He saw what the country needed to recover. Whatever the means it worked. I mentioned my grandma's glowing review of FDR as a contrast to the low approval ratings of the current adminastration. History can be debated eternally.

    It was and is left up to all the leaders since that time to find policies that speak to our times.

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    Default Re: International Alarms ringing re the US Dollar ...

    My grandfather, much as he deplored the Robber Baron tactics of another godlike figure, Henry Ford, saw FDR as the Devil incarnate.

    I don't think so, myself, even if I can't view him as quite so much the savior as many others do.

    Certainly he cared far more for the well-being of the average American than his predecessor, and many of his successors

    Possibly he could have done more to keep us out of the war, but it was inevitable that we got drawn into it eventually.

    Continuing to ship oil and steel to Japan, to feed the war machine of one of the most brutal and oppressive militaristic regimes in history, would have been contrary to everything an ethical nation ought to do. The fact that we were sustaining the war machine of the British at the same time has been termed hypocrisy--but look who they were up against...

    I would tend to be far more critical of the massive support given to Stalin, a man responsible for butchering as many of his own people as Hitler did. Basically we mechanized their army with thousands and thousands of trucks, leaving them free to concentrate on tank production, and enabling them to conquer half of Europe--the result of which we are only now recovering from.

    When he took over, this country was in economic shambles--something clearly had to be done to relieve the suffering of the majority of the American people. Going to war helped, but that was inevitable, and many of his measures did arguably lift the average American out of the squalor to which they had been reduced.

    I would tend to view massive deficit spending and the 'Trickle Down' theory of economic policy--practiced by that other tremendously popular (but in my estimation infinitely worse) president, Ronald Reagan--and his protege (or possibly the real power behind RR during his presidency, lol) Bush, Sr.--as being a worse legacy than anything FDR was responsible for.

    A 'Trickle Up' theory of economic policy has never been brought up or proposed, which I find quite interesting--though many have claimed it exists (though never using this term), it is never presented as a viable solution--rather a terrible mistake.

    Of course, FDR also practiced deficit spending, lol--though he did have a major war on his hands.

    But we have seen a steady and extremely frightening increase in the national debt, except while Clinton was in office--and while there are those who would credit a republican-dominated congress for the reduction of the national debt, I am unconvinced. After all, we have had a republican-dominated congress for quite some time now, and the national debt has increased tremendously, to staggering proportions.

    I'm not granting Clinton all the credit for the temporary reduction in the national debt, but I think denying him any credit is an equal if not greater distortion.

    I think both democrats and republicans are responsible for the tremendous and ever-growing national debt.

    I'm not in favor of unrestricted welfare or unrestrained social program funding--but to ignore the plight of the poor and the recurrent problem of a severely pressured middle class, while doing everything possible to sustain the profits of large corporations and the salaries of those who run them, and thus the luxurious lifestyle of the very rich, seems suicidal to me.

    I am now a stockholder (though it isn't anything major), but this does nothing to change my opinion.

    There has to be a balance between the availabilty of a profitable labor supply and flow of capital to American industry, and the availabity of a decent standard of living and provision of health care to the labor pool. FDR did attempt to address the latter issues, and I admire that a great deal, even if he might have done so more prudently.

    To deny one in order to sustain the other (as I fear is being done presently) won't work, not for long.

    One thing's for sure, both parties seem hell-bent on spending far more than the government takes in. This will bring the nation down soon enough, and then we might as well fire up the barbeque, and the bong as well, lol. I haven't been smoking much weed at all recently, but if the shit hits the fan like it is threatening to, I might be tempted to...
    Last edited by Djoser; 06-04-2006 at 03:35 AM.
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    Default Re: International Alarms ringing re the US Dollar ...

    The policies FDR implimented saved everyone at that time; not just the poor
    My grandfather, much as he deplored the Robber Baron tactics of another godlike figure, Henry Ford, saw FDR as the Devil incarnate.
    Again trying to confine DD discussions to the financial, FDR 'saved everyone at that time' by mortgaging the future economic prosperity of the grandchildren and great-grandchildren of those depression era benefit recipients. From nickel and dime beginnings at the top of FDR's 'Ponzi Scheme' social benefit programs ... i.e. early social security beneficiaries paying in $100 total over their entire working lives and receiving tens of thousands of dollars worth of benefits, early social welfare programs being financed with 2-3% income taxes etc. ... the promises made by FDR and his 'disciple' LBJ now constitute almost 50% of the US federal budget and are being financed by 20-30% income taxes. In other words, the 'bottom' of the 'Ponzi Scheme' social benefit pyramid has now arrived, young Americans are going to be left 'holding the bag' in terms of increased tax burden, and older Americans are going to be left with an 'empty bag' in regard to promised benefits.

    The 'future' economic burden imposed by FDR and LBJ to finance their social welfare programs has effectively become an economic force unto itself, with formulas relating X productive workers versus Y beneficiaries consuming Z dollars worth of benefits creating ever greater tax burden with each passing year. This has now reached the point where no significant change can be made without modern-day politicians committing political suicide by calling for benefit cuts/changes - GWB tried it re SSI and was promptly trounced by mainstream media. The point is rapidly coming where the beneficiaries will outnumber the actual taxpayers ... think about the consequences of that development !!!

    Again nothing personal intended, but the public perception of FDR's policies (as well as LBJ's policies and similar policies to this day) are inevitably anchored in each person's understanding of the programs' actual effects. Some people simply saw (see) a gov't benefit check being handed to them for which they were required to pay little or nothing and for which they were required to sacrifice nothing. Other people saw (see) the systematic damage to the overall economic health, the implied incentives of paying people not to 'bust their ass' working, the implied disincentives of imposing high taxes/costs on profitable businesses and productive individuals, and the eventual inevitable side effects of those incentives/disincentives on the American economy of the future. I would guess that this is the fundamental difference between the grandmother's and grandfather's viewpoints !

    As to all the theories about corporate 'fat cat' compensation etc. the bottom line is that ever since LBJ greatly expanded the tax burden to finance 'great society' programs, and ever since Nixon was forced to convert the US dollar to a total 'fiat' currency due to foreign investors pulling their money out of the USA as a (partial) result of the economic effects of LBJ's programs, large corporations have been systematically cutting their American roots. Thus in point of fact, the US gov't has essentially no jurisdiction whatsoever over major corporations today, since they are all prepared to pull a 'benedict arnold' and move corporate headquarters to a friendlier jurisdiction (with a much lower corporate tax burden too btw!) if pressured too hard by the US gov't.
    Last edited by Melonie; 06-04-2006 at 05:29 AM.

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    Default Re: International Alarms ringing re the US Dollar ...

    This reminds me very much of one of the better science fiction author's view of the future of the really big corporations--as entities dwarfing national governments in power, without need for loyalty to national boundaries or governments. His name is William Gibson--one of the few worth a damn anymore.

    Actually, I suspect it is already true to a much greater extent than most people realize, and this ties in with Eisenhower's warning about the growing military/industrial complex being one the greatest dangers this country faced.

    Melonie, what's your take on the possible destabilization of the Chinese economy making them more of a risk as far as becoming an aggressor nation? We already know they have a large surplus of single males (thus horny and pissed off, ie, ready to fight, lol), due to the widespread abortion of unborn females.
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    Default Re: International Alarms ringing re the US Dollar ...

    Melonie, what's your take on the possible destabilization of the Chinese economy making them more of a risk as far as becoming an aggressor nation? We already know they have a large surplus of single males (thus horny and pissed off, ie, ready to fight, lol), due to the widespread abortion of unborn females
    Personal opinion ... the US gov't refusing to approve a Chinese buyout of UnoCal actually sent a 'shot across the bow' of the Chinese. It essentially proved the point that, where natural resources / vital commodities are concerned, the US gov't is not going to accept China's US T-Bonds in exchange for anything of strategic value - in other words, the Chinese pile of US trade surplus dollars cannot be used to purchase strategic materials China needs. The US military presence in Iraq, the ex-Soviet 'Stan's etc. is IMHO also sending the Chinese a fairly clear message in regard to American influence over these strategic petroleum and gas reserves. In competition/retribution, IMHO China has cozied up to Cuba, Nigeria, Venezuela, Bolivia, Equador etc. in an attempt to establish Chinese influence over their petroleum and gas reserves.

    Unfortunately, IMHO, at some point when there simply isn't enough oil to go around, I don't doubt for one minute that China will resort to aggression in order to secure oil and gas reserves they think they need. As you say, the Chinese gov't has little dis-incentive to sending a few million young single males out with rifles ... but they also have the best military technology that can be stolen ! Given China's past history on human rights and international obligations/relations, their aggression could very well be the catalyst for WW3. It would then fall to US voters to decide whether we want to get involved to defend our own influence over foreign oil and gas reserves, or to step aside and accept a future status of becoming a '3rd world country' in terms of future standard of living. Odds tend to favor the latter !

    These sort of possibilities are part of the reason that I'm actively researching a change in official residence outside of the USA (see 'private island' thread) before this sort of s#!t hits the proverbial fan ! IMHO much also hinges on the results of the 2008 election in regard to America's potential countermoves (or lack thereof) to Chinese agression to secure control over global oil and gas resources ... which in turn tends to set the likely timetable for any serious Chinese aggression - as well as for my no longer living in and paying taxes to America !
    ~
    Last edited by Melonie; 06-04-2006 at 06:27 AM.

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    Default Re: International Alarms ringing re the US Dollar ...

    I think we need a third party more than ever, then...

    One that will stand up to potential aggression by China, but not be too aggressive. I don't trust either party--as they are currently being run--to have the combination of tact and balls (or gonads, I should say--a spirited but intelligent woman might be able to do so quite well) to pull it off.

    If this is too pooish, please delete it, lol!
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    Default Re: International Alarms ringing re the US Dollar ...

    we're definitely skirting the limits of politico-economic discussions, but ...

    IMHO it's too late for a 3rd party to have any serious chance of achieving a majority, because the financial interests of Americans are fragmented into three basic segments ... the 'poor', the 'very rich', and the working/middle class. Basically, IMHO the 'poor' and the 'very rich' are now capable of forming a coalition majority based on common political-economic interests - meaning that any 3rd party effort would only serve to make a successful coalition majority of the 'very rich' plus the 'poor' all the more probable by fragmenting the competing common interests of the working class and middle class.

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    Featured Member Vamp's Avatar
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    Default Re: International Alarms ringing re the US Dollar ...

    Not to mention the fact that democrats and republicans have made an agreement with each other. Neither of them will appear in a debate with a third party canidate again.Ross Perot taught them a lesson.

    I also wonder if the electoral college would even acknowledge a third runner.

    To tie this back into finance, there are very few outside of the two parties that could even afford to run a serious campaign. It is sad America wasn't always this way.

    I think a strong leader could cut across political, economic, and racial lines. This country is so dissatisfied with what we have that all it will take is one strong voice from any party.

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    Default Re: International Alarms ringing re the US Dollar ...

    I think a strong leader could cut across political, economic, and racial lines. This country is so dissatisfied with what we have that all it will take is one strong voice from any party.
    Again on the economic side, even if a 'strong voice' were to say something meaningful, it's an entirely different question as to just how many Americans would actually get to hear it. In regard to 'free' mainstream media coverage, this basically requires that whatever is being said coincides with the editorial policies of the media owners. If what's being said isn't so agreeable that editors/producers decide to give it free coverage, then somebody has to pony up the $10 million dollars per minute to buy national air time. If that's the case then the message needs to be acceptable to the 'million dollar political donor' crowd in order to obtain the necessary funding. However, if what's being said does not appeal to mainstream media or million dollar political donors, ... 'if a tree falls in the woods does it make a sound ?"

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    Default Re: International Alarms ringing re the US Dollar ...

    Back on the economic issue, the comments on page 1 of this thread may give FDR more credit/responsibility than he deserves imo, but it is surely true that he got the ball rolling in the direction it is still going. It may also be worth noting that this way of managing an economy has produced by far the wealthiest and most economically dominant nation in history and has succeeded in doing so for at least 3 generations already. Its downside, an eventual and huge collapse due to unsupportable debt levels, is a theoretical prediction which has also been around for nearly that whole period but which keeps slipping off into the future as the years go by. The huge growth in government and private debt in the 1980s (the greatest since WW2 measured in real terms, inflation corrected and relative to the GDP) produced a particularly strong consensus among economists and financial experts that the "bill would finally come due" and crush the US economy in the 1990s...but it didn't exactly work out that way, just the opposite happened. Funny thing, economic theory.

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    Default Re: International Alarms ringing re the US Dollar ...

    ^^ and a strong consensus of today's economists attribute the fact that America avoided the 'bill coming due' during the 90's to two factors ... devaluing the US$ to 'monetize' part of America's debt away, and the unexpectedly huge reduction in US defense/military spending made possible by the collapse of the Soviet Union and by Clinton's policies of 'ignoring' situations which at other points in history would have prompted a US military response.

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    Featured Member Wwanderer's Avatar
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    Default Re: International Alarms ringing re the US Dollar ...

    Quote Originally Posted by Melonie
    ^^ and a strong consensus of today's economists attribute the fact that America avoided the 'bill coming due' during the 90's to two factors ... devaluing the US$ to 'monetize' part of America's debt away, and the unexpectedly huge reduction in US defense/military spending made possible by the collapse of the Soviet Union and by Clinton's policies of 'ignoring' situations which at other points in history would have prompted a US military response.
    Yep, that is also my impression of the consensus view of the experts...who are never wrong in their "postdictions"; it is only the predictions that are tricky.

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    Default Re: International Alarms ringing re the US Dollar ...

    Quote Originally Posted by Wwanderer
    Yep, that is also my impression of the consensus view of the experts...who are never wrong in their "postdictions"; it is only the predictions that are tricky.

    -Ww
    That's a good one...

    I've always thought that the massive miltitary spending practiced during the Reagan years was mishandled, even if it did supposedly prove the last straw for the Soviet Union, unable to increase the phenomenonally high proportion of it's income spent on pumping up it's military.

    The really smart thing to do would have been to have devoted more of that tax revenue to the Space Program, and hopefully cleaning out the bureaucratic mess that it was saddled with. Whoever dominates Space, will dominate any future major conflict, as surely as we won WW II largely by winning the air war.

    Furthermore, the benefits to the development of new technology and research would have been better than those derived from the conventional military buildup--and more beneficial to the public, and to our future stability as a nation.

    Of course the shuttle disaster kind of made this a less digestable alternative--but I still think they should have done it, and that we should be doing it now, ASAMFP.
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