Results 1 to 22 of 22

Thread: VeraSun at $23 a share today

  1. #1
    Temporarily Banned Vaughn's Avatar
    Joined
    May 2006
    Location
    USA
    Posts
    246
    Thanks
    0
    Thanked 0 Times in 0 Posts

    Default VeraSun ( alt fuel) stock doing just dandy!

    edited to add:

    message deleted because I was just informed that all contributions I might have to add to this section of the website are not welcome under any circumstances. If anyone is interested in discussing alternative fuel stocks or investments please feel free to PM me. Have a nice day!
    Last edited by Vaughn; 06-14-2006 at 02:38 PM.

  2. #2
    Featured Member lunchbox's Avatar
    Joined
    Sep 2005
    Location
    falling from grace
    Posts
    1,943
    Thanks
    0
    Thanked 8 Times in 6 Posts

    Default Re: ORA up!

    Please refrain from making multiple threads to post 1 or 2 sentences about the the day to day performace of everything in your portfolio/what you are watching. If you really feel like posting it, do it all in one thread.

  3. #3
    Banned Melonie's Avatar
    Joined
    Jul 2002
    Location
    way south of the border
    Posts
    25,932
    Thanks
    612
    Thanked 10,563 Times in 4,646 Posts
    Blog Entries
    3
    My Mood
    Cynical

    Default Re: PIEX up!

    Vaughn and lunchbox, please relax a little. I merged all the threads together so no harm done. Also there's no reason not to discuss these four stocks a bit. All financially related posts are welcome here ... however, unlike the cable TV talking heads, more than one analysis and opinion viewpoint may be posted in return.

    For starters, over the last week all of these stocks have taken some major pullbacks, such that today's turnaround - while impressive if viewed in a 'vacuum' - look a bit different if viewed over a week's time frame ...





    next, one can compare the performance of these stocks against the market in general i.e. the Dow Jones over the same one week time frame.



    As I tried to state before, 'alternative energy' stocks, and ethanol stocks in particular, are a 'hot money' sector - where share prices appear to be primarily driven by hedge fund buying and selling. With the commodities markets dropping over the past few days placing a heavy cash demand on the hedge funds to meet COMEX margin calls, they sold off a lot of their shares in 'hot sector' companies to raise cash. Today this turned around a bit for 'hot sector' stocks as the commodities market prices recovered.

    VeraSun is a bit more difficult to quantify, since VSE has only been publicly traded for exactly one day since it's IPO. It appears to be more of a 'pure' ethanol play versus other companies whose ethanol involvement is a smaller percentage of their total business operations. This of course theoretically will make VSE's share price follow the spot market price of ethanol more closely than more diversified agrocorporations like ADM, and also tends to draw more high risk bet attention from hedge funds. Given the US gov't mandate that ethanol will now be used in place of MBTE as a blended gasoline additive, and given the US gov't import quotas and 57 cent per gallon tariffs against imported Brazilian ethanol, ethanol is in short supply inside the USA and the US spot price of ethanol is also higher than the 'world' price. If nothing changes in the way of US gov't ethanol policy or overall US demand for (ethanol blended) gasoline then VSE stands to profit handsomely, as did smart and/or 'connected' investors who were able to get in on the ground floor of their IPO.



    Some discussion of ethanol company stocks vs. hedge fund driven price volatility can be found at (which at this moment shows yesterday's prices before today's partial recovery)

    (snip)"yesterday's (sic) results are a culmination of what has been occurring in the past weeks. Oil prices have declined (due partially to the death of Terrorist Abu Musab al-Zarqawi) , and analysts have been questioning the current status of this industry (A turn around in either of the two can still have a large impact on these stocks). Has the speculation dried up? Has the miniature bubble popped? Companies, such as PEIX, have to start proving its shareholders worthy of buying its shares. PEIX, one of the largest gainers since Bush's State of the Union Address has yet to produce one gallon of ethanol. Currently, its reasonable to say its all hype and potential. "(snip)
    ~
    Last edited by Melonie; 06-14-2006 at 07:02 PM.

  4. #4
    Featured Member lunchbox's Avatar
    Joined
    Sep 2005
    Location
    falling from grace
    Posts
    1,943
    Thanks
    0
    Thanked 8 Times in 6 Posts

    Default Re: PIEX up!

    Quote Originally Posted by Melonie
    Vaughn and lunchbox, please relax a little. I merged the three threads together so no harm done.
    I never doubted you for a second.

  5. #5
    God/dess VenusGoddess's Avatar
    Joined
    Oct 2003
    Location
    Home
    Posts
    13,598
    Thanks
    0
    Thanked 28 Times in 23 Posts

    Default Re: PIEX up!

    Quote Originally Posted by Vaughn
    edited to add:

    message deleted because I was just informed that all contributions I might have to add to this section of the website are not welcome under any circumstances. If anyone is interested in discussing alternative fuel stocks or investments please feel free to PM me. Have a nice day!
    Welcome back, TL.

  6. #6
    God/dess Bridgette's Avatar
    Joined
    Apr 2002
    Location
    Gettin the fuck outta Dodge!
    Posts
    14,241
    Thanks
    0
    Thanked 0 Times in 0 Posts

    Default Re: VeraSun at $23 a share today

    Hey TigerLily, would you just stop it already? This attention-seeking BS has gotten mighty tiresome. Not to mention the fact we can't even read a damn thread for you chopping it up with all your blasted post-edits. FFS, just STOP IT.

    Quote Originally Posted by pheno View Post
    When you lead a nontraditional life don't try to measure it with traditional milestones.

  7. #7
    Temporarily Banned Vaughn's Avatar
    Joined
    May 2006
    Location
    USA
    Posts
    246
    Thanks
    0
    Thanked 0 Times in 0 Posts

    Default Re: VeraSun at $23 a share today

    Bridgette, you are addressing the wrong person. I was told not to change names as I had wanted to do to avoid being stereotyped by early mistakes which I have decided to learn from and move on. I stayed with this one as was instructed. Considering I can't change names would someone please do an IP check so this confusion as to I am and am not can be cleared up? Thanks.

    In regards to your complaint about the topics being difficult to follow, I will delete what I can to help make the threads I have removed my comments from easier to read. I hope that will help solve that issue.
    Last edited by Vaughn; 06-14-2006 at 10:49 PM.

  8. #8
    God/dess VenusGoddess's Avatar
    Joined
    Oct 2003
    Location
    Home
    Posts
    13,598
    Thanks
    0
    Thanked 28 Times in 23 Posts

    Default Re: VeraSun at $23 a share today

    Why don't you just stop messing with the threads completely!?!?!

  9. #9
    Banned Melonie's Avatar
    Joined
    Jul 2002
    Location
    way south of the border
    Posts
    25,932
    Thanks
    612
    Thanked 10,563 Times in 4,646 Posts
    Blog Entries
    3
    My Mood
    Cynical

    Default Re: VeraSun at $23 a share today

    I would add that as of noon today, VeraSun has taken a 9.5% 'dump', clearly moving counter to the trend which has the Dow Jones gaining 80+ points. The likely reason is that more and more mainstream financial opinion is starting to appear concerning the 'ethanol bubble', and that investors are finally starting to pay attention to P/E ratios, actual production of ethanol etc.



    (snip)"Then there's the concern of valuations. Gaskins says at $30 a share, VeraSun Energy is trading for 200 times its annualized earnings from the March quarter. Compare that with 50 for Google. Killian says it's inappropriate to value the company on current earnings since it plans to more than double capacity in two years.

    Still, the potential deluge of new ethanol capacity makes nosebleed valuations dangerous, Gaskins says. "This is a real product. We need ethanol," he says. "But it's Economics 101. ... It's an ethanol bubble." (snip)


    The 'tin foil hat crowd' would also point out that the present supply shortage and very high prices for US ethanol is contrived ... both by the US congress passing an instantaneous mandate to replace all MBTE gasoline additive with ethanol knowing full well that US ethanol refinery capacity was insufficient, and by the US congress erecting import quotas and tariffs which both severely limit the amount of ethanol which can be imported into the USA to relieve the supply shortage (Brazil's import quota is I believe 7% of total US ethanol production maximum), and which add 57 cents per gallon to the ethanol sale price within the USA (which in turn allows all US ethanol producers to charge a 57 cents per gallon higher price, which in turn raises the price at the pump for ethanol additive gasoline by 5.7 cents per gallon).

  10. #10
    Member ~Nikki~'s Avatar
    Joined
    Jun 2006
    Posts
    48
    Thanks
    0
    Thanked 0 Times in 0 Posts

    Default Re: VeraSun at $23 a share today

    The VSE stock opened at $28 and shot to $30 by the close of the market for a 30% gain on the day. And shares of Archer Daniels Midland have nearly doubled this year...... not too shabby.

  11. #11
    Banned Melonie's Avatar
    Joined
    Jul 2002
    Location
    way south of the border
    Posts
    25,932
    Thanks
    612
    Thanked 10,563 Times in 4,646 Posts
    Blog Entries
    3
    My Mood
    Cynical

    Default Re: VeraSun at $23 a share today

    ^^^ I'm not offering an opinion that ethanol stocks weren't a very good investment a few months ago when the US congress first banned MBTE and mandated the use of vast quantities of ethanol as a gasoline additive, plus strictly limited the amount of imported ethanol that could have avoided a shortage / high US ethanol prices. However, today may be a very different story. As you point out, these stocks have been bid up a lot over the past few months based on the creation / legislation of a huge new US ethanol market with supported prices. But mainstream analysts are now starting to stare at decimal points in regard to how productive and profitable these companies actually are relative to their already bid up stock valuations. There may be more upside left ... and there may not too ... depending on how many hedge funds put these stocks 'in play' and how many Joe Sixpacks decide to buy based on faith/hype/political correctness.

    As to the IPO's, of which VeraSun is the most recent example, IMHO the entire IPO structure stinks to high heaven. A certain group of company employees get stock shares and/or options at the 'opening' price - as do a certain number of employees of the 'market maker' financial institutions who float the stock issue - as do a certain number of affiliated brokers. Then the hedge funds typically buy in early to create some upward momentum. This attracts Joe Sixpack money which further pumps the share price. At about this time the hedge funds and some of the 'insiders' quickly cash in, which may leave Joe Sixpack holding the proverbial bag. I'm not saying that this will happen with every IPO (admittedly some IPO's have made early buyers very rich), but it certainly has happened with quite a few past IPO's and is if nothing else a valid reason to exercise some caution.

    PS VSE shares fell off the $30 opening price like an avalanche, and are now trading at $26.85 after hours. The volume of shares traded graph pretty much tells the whole story.

  12. #12
    Member ~Nikki~'s Avatar
    Joined
    Jun 2006
    Posts
    48
    Thanks
    0
    Thanked 0 Times in 0 Posts

    Default Re: VeraSun at $23 a share today

    To address the topic of VeraSun IPO's- They have publicly stated they intend to use the IPO proceeds for the construction of 2 additional 110M gal/year ethanol plants, one in Iowa, and one in Minnesota.

    In 2005 VeraSun sold 126M gal ethanol at an average price of $1.59/gal. That accounts for $200M of their $235M revenue, the remainder coming presumably from sales of Distillers Grain. This means they offset their corn costs by $0.42/bushel capacity ($235M-$200M/43M+39M) through selling of Distillers Grains.

    Side note on ethanol stocks, ORA was up again today.
    Last edited by ~Nikki~; 06-15-2006 at 10:40 PM.

  13. #13
    Banned Melonie's Avatar
    Joined
    Jul 2002
    Location
    way south of the border
    Posts
    25,932
    Thanks
    612
    Thanked 10,563 Times in 4,646 Posts
    Blog Entries
    3
    My Mood
    Cynical

    Default Re: VeraSun at $23 a share today

    ^^^ again you are making reference to cash flows, sale of company assets etc. but with no mention of actual VeraSun profits.

    As to ORA being up (by 6%) today, so was the Dow Jones (by nearly 200 points), Halliburton (by 5%), GoldCorp (by 6%) and a zillion other stocks. On a day to day basis, what has gone down a lot must come up at least a little. But the fact is that since the US congress legislated the US ethanol fuel additive industry into existance last february by mandating the use of ethanol and banning MBTE as a fuel additive, ORA and most other ethanol stocks have been in a downtrend.

    The real play in the ethanol sector was to buy in last december and january when congressional hearings on ethanol and MBTE were taking place on a dice roll that congress would wind up voting the way they did to create massive new US demand for ethanol plus block the importation of cheap foreign ethanol (which is exactly what many hedge funds did ... of course they have a better line of communication to Washington DC than we 'amateur' investors do). But I'll grant you that ORA's P/E ratio is reasonable compared to most ethanol sector stocks, and that they do actually earn some profit (albeit a gov't subsidized profit) and pay a (small) dividend.
    Last edited by Melonie; 06-15-2006 at 11:54 PM.

  14. #14
    Member ~Nikki~'s Avatar
    Joined
    Jun 2006
    Posts
    48
    Thanks
    0
    Thanked 0 Times in 0 Posts

    Default Re: VeraSun at $23 a share today

    Quote Originally Posted by Melonie
    no mention of actual VeraSun profits.
    Anyone who bothers to look into the company knows that VeraSun reported a jump in profit during the first quarter of 2006 to $13.6 million, up from $1.7 million in the first quarter of 2005.

    Another interesting note is that VeraSun recently has signed partnerships with two major U.S. auto companies. VeraSun is working with Ford and is also collaborating with General Motors to add 26 ethanol fuel stations in the Chicago area. That is very good economic news for people in Chicago who could be buying ethanol fuel at $1.59 a gallon verses over $3.00 a gallon of gas made from oil.


    Considering that phasing out gas made from crude has already begun it's a good idea ( for those who wish to do something that does not contribute to the energy crisis and all that is involved ) to get into alternative fuels now before they get too expensive for the average investor. These investment are for the long-term and not for get rich quick schemes. Investing in things like ethanol is about investing in the future of the worlds energy and not getting stuck in the quick sand of the past.

    Ofcourse people who care nothing about the long term future of anything or anyone will not be interested in these things.

    Quote Originally Posted by Melonie
    ^^^ I'm not offering an opinion that ethanol stocks weren't a very good investment a few months ago ]
    Oh really? So it wasn't you who posted this:



    Quote Originally Posted by Melonie
    most if not all of the 'emerging alternative energy' companies are not generating meaningful profits at this point in time.
    Wouldn't ethanol be considered an alternative energy? So which is it, are alternative fuels such as ethanol producing meaningful profits or not? Is a 10+ million dollar profit in the first quarter not a meaniful profit? Is the NALFX one-year returns of 21.54 percent not a meaniful? Is a 267% return from "cleantech" stocks over 10 years not meaniful?


    Or could it just be that as an uber neocon you just don't support alternative fuels.

  15. #15
    God/dess Bridgette's Avatar
    Joined
    Apr 2002
    Location
    Gettin the fuck outta Dodge!
    Posts
    14,241
    Thanks
    0
    Thanked 0 Times in 0 Posts

    Default Re: VeraSun at $23 a share today

    Welcome back TL.

    Quote Originally Posted by pheno View Post
    When you lead a nontraditional life don't try to measure it with traditional milestones.

  16. #16
    God/dess VenusGoddess's Avatar
    Joined
    Oct 2003
    Location
    Home
    Posts
    13,598
    Thanks
    0
    Thanked 28 Times in 23 Posts

    Default Re: VeraSun at $23 a share today

    ^ She's pretty quick, ain't she Bridgette? LOL

  17. #17
    Banned Melonie's Avatar
    Joined
    Jul 2002
    Location
    way south of the border
    Posts
    25,932
    Thanks
    612
    Thanked 10,563 Times in 4,646 Posts
    Blog Entries
    3
    My Mood
    Cynical

    Default Re: VeraSun at $23 a share today

    'a few months ago' means a few months ago .... 'at this point in time' means right now !

    a 10 million dollar one time 'profit' from the sale of a company asset is not the same thing as an ongoing profit generated by a margin between sale price and cost of production (with or without gov't supports creating a higher sale price within the USA vs elsewhere in the world). This is exactly the sort of accounting which has been used in the past re stock options, foreign division transfers etc. allowing companies to book 'profits' which didn't really exist in the conventional sense.

    As to NALFX, I already spent another thread pointing out that the vast majority of individual stocks held in the NALFX mutual fund are far from 'pure' alternative energy businesses, many have only a minor percentage involvement in alternative energy versus their 'core' business activities, and that the actual profits thus rising stock prices of these individual stocks stemmed from business activities by these companies which was not specifically related to 'alternative energy'. If I remember correctly, four of the top ten NALFX stocks were electrical equipment suppliers (transformers, circuit breakers, insulators etc) - and while these companies probably sold some things to 'alternative energy' generating projects, a much larger amount was sold to LA/MI/TX power companies to repair Katrina damage, a much larger amount was sold to China and India for first time electrical installations etc.

  18. #18
    Member ~Nikki~'s Avatar
    Joined
    Jun 2006
    Posts
    48
    Thanks
    0
    Thanked 0 Times in 0 Posts

    Default Re: VeraSun at $23 a share today

    Look you asked about VeraSun's profits, which have been DAMN good. You previously said that all these kinds of companies has a bad track record, which is a downright fucking lie. I have proven that to be false repeatedly. There are plenty of good investments that are either pure green or tied to green.


    If you don't want to invest in these things because of your extreme and overt political bias, that's fine. No one is going to force you to do so. What I don't understand is why you continue to put out misinformation regarding these investments. Why are you using your moderator status and powers to further your political bias onto other people? Until you stop abusing your position you can expect to be challenged by people. I am obviously not the first person nor will I be the last.

    We allow you to put forth your ideas and don't go chasing around after EVERY SINGLE thread trying to put your ideas down so why can't you do the same. People have different ideas and opinions in life. You are not the supreme being of the universe despite what you may think. Stop trying to make everyone into little Melonie robots. One in the world is bad enough! This is the United States of America we are living in, not the Fascist Nation of Melonie.

    You need to stop with the neocon propoganda and just stick to facts. Your lies don't help anyone. Then again you are not interested in helping anyone but yourself, now are you? But as a moderator you should be.

  19. #19
    Banned Melonie's Avatar
    Joined
    Jul 2002
    Location
    way south of the border
    Posts
    25,932
    Thanks
    612
    Thanked 10,563 Times in 4,646 Posts
    Blog Entries
    3
    My Mood
    Cynical

    Default Re: VeraSun at $23 a share today

    "NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- VeraSun Energy Corp. slid for a second straight day Friday, as shares of the ethanol firm shed another 8% on losses among its peers.

    VeraSun Last: 24.73-2.42-8.91% 3:27pm 06/16/2006

    VSE ($24.73, -2.42, -8.9% ) kicked off with a 30% gain Wednesday, when the IPO closed at $30 a share, up $7 from its $23 opening.

    Earlier, the IPO had priced above its $20 to $22 range as investors piled on.

    Now, some investors are running for the exit. Shares fell to $27.15 on Thursday and are now changing hands at $25.02 a share. "(snip)


    All I can say is that I hope that no Dollar Den visitors piled onto VeraSun's IPO hype too late in the game.

    Also, ideas and opinions are indeed open to discussion. But real profits (or lack thereof) and rising (or falling) share prices are public record facts.

    While I may indeed have a personal opinion about most 'alternative energy' stocks, I have gone out of my way to make sure that all of my responses were backed by reputable financial news coverage and public record financial facts. If anybody is aware of the reputable financial news coverage and public record financial facts surrounding some of these 'darling of the hedge funds' hot sector stocks and still wants to invest in them, I'm certainly not going to stand in their way of making an 'informed' decision.

    However, as moderator I feel that someone needs to point out 'missing' financial facts when they are conspicuously absent from certain postings, because these can lead to 'uninformed' decisions (or more correctly, decisions based on hype and/or PR). Certain financial newspapers, magazines and/or cable channels apparently feel comfortable putting forth certain financial facts and hype while not providing counterbalancing financial facts. However, that's not going to happen here in Dollar Den, regardless of how 'politically correct' the hype might be.
    ~
    Last edited by Melonie; 06-16-2006 at 01:13 PM.

  20. #20
    God/dess Bridgette's Avatar
    Joined
    Apr 2002
    Location
    Gettin the fuck outta Dodge!
    Posts
    14,241
    Thanks
    0
    Thanked 0 Times in 0 Posts

    Default Re: VeraSun at $23 a share today

    I have to wonder, TigerLily, why YOU feel the need to keep following melonie around to argue with, after all this time, despite being repeatedly banned from the site. What IS this obsession of yours???

    Quote Originally Posted by pheno View Post
    When you lead a nontraditional life don't try to measure it with traditional milestones.

  21. #21
    Member ~Nikki~'s Avatar
    Joined
    Jun 2006
    Posts
    48
    Thanks
    0
    Thanked 0 Times in 0 Posts

    Default Re: VeraSun at $23 a share today

    Bridgette,

    I already explained once that I am not this banned member I have been accused of being and I don't feel the need to address that issue any further. It has come to my attention that at least 6 to 8 other people have also been wrongly accused as well. Think whatever you want, I cannot change that and have no intention of wasting more time on it either. I just want to participate in discussions such as this one, nothing more and nothing less.

    As for my challenging of Melonie's campaign of misinformation, I will continue to do so for as long as she uses her moderator status and power in an unethical fashion. I would take that position with anyone here who continued to abuse their power in such a public manner. It is abut what she is doing not who she is as a person. Should she decide to let other ideas besides her own be freely expressed I will discontinue pointing out her unethical behavior because it would cease to exist.

    This will be the last time I will respond to these taunts by you, VenusGoddess or anyone else for that matter. I am here in Dollar Den to discuss investments not to engage in flame wars with you or anyone else. The same goes for any other section. I am here to participate not to be bullied. I will not partake in such childish high school clique behavior as you and various moderators or other members are currently trying to force upon me.

    If you would like to discuss, debate or exchange ideas on any topic related issues then I will respond, otherwise you will be ignored by me from this day forward. Enjoy the rest of your evening.
    Last edited by ~Nikki~; 06-16-2006 at 07:38 PM.

  22. #22
    Member ~Nikki~'s Avatar
    Joined
    Jun 2006
    Posts
    48
    Thanks
    0
    Thanked 0 Times in 0 Posts

    Default Re: VeraSun at $23 a share today

    Quote Originally Posted by Melonie

    While I may indeed have a personal opinion about most 'alternative energy' stocks, I have gone out of my way to make sure that all of my responses were backed by reputable financial news coverage and public record financial facts.
    That is not entirely true. I am taking issue with the numerous times where you have posted misinformation such as I pointed out previously. I have posted facts to support all my postions on alternative energy and green investing. I have done well with it and see no reason who you need to be trying to eliminate this area of investing from being even considered in the first place? The answer to why you do this is obvious. It is because of your extreem neocon political point of view. I am not trying to stop you from presenting your ideas, sop why are you intent on trying to stop me from posting mine. Don't say you haven't because you clearly have done so.

    as moderator I feel that someone needs to point out 'missing' financial facts when they are conspicuously absent
    That is NOT what you do to subjects you find oppose your obvious political bias. If you did so I would have no complaint. This is why I take issue with your attempts to shut down any and all ideas that do not fall within your personal and political opinions. If you would just let topics be freely expressed and discussed I would have no problem with you. What I oppose is that you try to tailor ALL threads to your own personal political bias with intimidation and often misinformation.

    I have no plans to follow you around from thread to thread and attack your ideas or investment preferences and all I am asking is that you do the same. For example, if you begin or add to a thread things about investing in say Halliburton or Walmart you will not find me on your heels barking about the reasons I don't like them. If you can do the same then this can end in an amicable fashion here and now. What do you say? Truce?
    Last edited by ~Nikki~; 06-16-2006 at 07:52 PM.

Similar Threads

  1. How much do you share?
    By shasta in forum Life Support
    Replies: 10
    Last Post: 02-04-2010, 02:28 PM
  2. Invented this today and wanted to share
    By High_Heel_Lover in forum The Lounge
    Replies: 6
    Last Post: 02-17-2008, 09:56 PM
  3. VeraSun moves toward diversification w/ biodiesel
    By Fan_Dancer in forum Dollar Den
    Replies: 8
    Last Post: 11-08-2006, 03:09 PM
  4. I just had to share !!
    By GoldCoastGirl in forum The Lounge
    Replies: 1
    Last Post: 07-04-2006, 08:57 PM
  5. will you share?
    By myiah in forum Stripping (was Stripping General)
    Replies: 13
    Last Post: 11-07-2004, 02:59 PM

Bookmarks

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •