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Thread: Ummmmm Melonie... I am buying silver tomorrow.

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    Default Ummmmm Melonie... I am buying silver tomorrow.

    If the Comptroller General of the US thinks the Republic is about to tank; who am I to argue......

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    Default Re: Ummmmm Melonie... I am buying silver tomorrow.

    The Republic is not going to tank BUT years of inaction will require VERY painful remedial measures- raising the retirement age; reducing benefits; MEANS TESTING benefits and raising taxes. I hope they start by reducing Congressional pensions.

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    Default Re: Ummmmm Melonie... I am buying silver tomorrow.

    this isn't a new 'story' actually ... which is why I have been buying precious metals on the dips for several years.

    I agree with Eric Stoner that it's extremely probable that future tax rate increases on the 'middle class' are a foregone conclusion. As always the 'rich' will have tax free muni bonds, offshore banking, a lower capital gains tax rate etc. such that any apparent increase in their tax rate really won't have a whole lot of effect. But either way, future income tax increases will make it pragmatically impossible to raise social security / medicare taxes on younger workers. As a result, Social Security and medicare will very probably wind up being 'means tested', with people who have bothered to open IRA's and 401ks to provide for their own retirement needs being denied Social Security checks until their own money has been spent first.

    As to public sector benefits / pensions, no way those will ever be touched. After all, the 'socialist economic triangle' depends on keeping the three constituent groups happy ... the poor who receive gov't checks, the 'rich' who receive tax free income from gov't bonds, and public / private sector union workers who receive gov't paychecks / contracts.

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    Default Re: Ummmmm Melonie... I am buying silver tomorrow.

    MELONIE- I just think it just and fair to reduce Congressional and Presidential pensions and benefits because THEY ought to suffer along with everyone else who will have to pay the price for decades of political cowardice and negligence. Congress, Reagan, both Bushes and Clinton all KNEW about this freight train coming down on us for DECADES and did NOTHING ! Reagan tried to raise the retirement age and was excoriated by Tip O'Neill, Claude Pepper and AARP.Even Pat Moynihan who knew exactly what NEEDED to be done joined in the political
    diatribe. Perot was talking about this very problem in 1992 ! Name a single effort by Slick Willy to deal with it in EIGHT years. Our current President tried to promote higher return investment on S.S. and was lambasted by the Dems.
    Remember Kerry in '04- "Oh we'll just have to raise S.S. taxes and that will take care of the problem ." BALONEY ! The math wasn't even close. Kerry either couldn't do simple math or didn't have the guts to really go near the issue. You could confiscate 100 % of income over $1 million for everybody and still fall TRILLIONS short and the Dems know it.

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    Default Re: Ummmmm Melonie... I am buying silver tomorrow.

    ou could confiscate 100 % of income over $1 million for everybody and still fall TRILLIONS short and the Dems know it.
    but the great 'secret' is that you can't confiscate high taxes from people who have million dollar incomes even if you wanted to, could garner the necessary political support, and managed to pass new laws to that effect. People with million dollar incomes have the wherewithal to get around the tax laws better than anyone ... their money will simply wind up shielded in foundations, will wind up migrating offshore, will wind up being invested in tax free muni bonds or tax advantaged wind farms. It is the working age 'middle class' that must bear the brunt of future tax increases.

    As to politicians agreeing to cut gov't spending on SSI or any other social program, it ain't gonna happen ... other than the enacting of 'means testing' as you point out. The result of instituting 'means testing' will be to wipe out the retirement age 'middle class' along with the working age 'middle class'.

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    Default Re: Ummmmm Melonie... I am buying silver tomorrow.

    Quote Originally Posted by Melonie View Post
    As to public sector benefits / pensions, no way those will ever be touched. After all, the 'socialist economic triangle' depends on keeping the three constituent groups happy ... the poor who receive gov't checks, the 'rich' who receive tax free income from gov't bonds, and public / private sector union workers who receive gov't paychecks / contracts.
    Isn't the Government Employee Pension fund more than 18 Billion short? Like in the red. Congress hasn't been paying into it for quite a while now. Watch the WHOLE Postal Service go postal.........................

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    Default Re: Ummmmm Melonie... I am buying silver tomorrow.

    18 billion ? The FED printed way more than $18 billion brand new dollars yesterday alone so that they could 'juice' the US stock market via TOMO's. On the other hand, the Social Security / medicare system has unfunded obligations of something like $50 trillion dollars. Of course about half of that $50 trillion would immediately evaporate if and when 'means testing' of Social Security / medicare recipients is instituted ... i.e. 20 years from now anybody who has been 'stupid' enough to scrimp and save for their own retirement will not begin receiving Social Security / medicare checks until they have spent all of their IRA / 401k money first !

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    Default Re: Ummmmm Melonie... I am buying silver tomorrow.

    RAISE the retirement age ! Should have been done in the 80's. It IS too late now to do all that it could have done had it been timely implemented but it will soften what is going to be be a very hard economic blow. There is absolutely NO Way we can "grow" our way out of this coming crisis and Melonie is 100 % correct that the American rich will weather the storm a lot more easily than the middle class.
    I just pointed to a 100% surtax on income over $1 million to show how intellectually vacuous Kerry was. Either he had no clue as to the enormity of the problem ( always a possibility with a "D" student like him ) or he was typically gutless in not being brave enough to propose anything remotely resembling a real solution. His choice.

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    Default Re: Ummmmm Melonie... I am buying silver tomorrow.

    ^^^ as long as you have raised the subject, the John / Theresa Kerry tax return which was made public during the 2004 election showed that they had 'income' of about 5 million dollars, of which they actually paid $600k or 12% in taxes. The majority of that 'income' was from tax free muni bonds. Thus John Kerry understood perfectly well that congress could call for a 100% surtax on 'incomes' over $1 million like his own, but that in reality doing so would only prompt the 'rich' to redirect their money towards alternate investments that aren't taxable !

    As to a real solution, given that we are now on the cusp of 'baby boomers' reaching the legal retirement age of 62, at which point they become eligible for Social Security and medicaid benefits, there isn't any 'time' left for raising the legal retirement age without pissing off a very large and well organized voting block of Americans age 52 to 62 (as well as partially pissing off Americans younger than 52). The institution of 'means testing' is far more politically palatable, since it will have no significant impact on the 'rich' (who view Social Security checks as pocket change) or the 'poor' (who will fall below the means test cutoff), and it does not piss off the well organized age 52 to 62 voting block by forcing them to work extra years after they already have retirement plans in place.

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    Default Re: Ummmmm Melonie... I am buying silver tomorrow.

    MELONIE- One of several and perhaps the BIGGEST reason Social Security and Medicare will be completely bankrupt in less than 20 years is because they are totally and completely actuarily unsound. When Social Security started the average life expectancy was BELOW 65 i.e most folks were never supposed to live long enough to collect. When it started there were something like 14 workers paying in for every 1 person collecting benefits. Today, life expectancy for women is around 80 and about 77 for men. And there are less than 4 people paying in for
    every recipient and that number will drop to about 2.5 at the peak of Baby Boomer retirement.
    A deep dark dirty secret is that a major factor keeping the whole mess temporarily solvent, FOR NOW !, is illegal immigrants paying in and not being eligible to ever collect. Although more than one advocacy group wants to change that and let them at least recoup what they paid in.
    Last edited by Eric Stoner; 03-10-2007 at 12:35 PM.

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    Default Re: Ummmmm Melonie... I am buying silver tomorrow.

    ^^^ I can't argue the demographics. I CAN argue the illegal immigrant SSI contribution. True that the numbers of illegal aliens who are paying into SSI is embarrassingly large. However, the dollar volume of their SSI payments at a flat tax rate of 7.6% of minimum wage or whatever is at best 20-25% of the typical SSI payments of a middle class American citizen.

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    Default Re: Ummmmm Melonie... I am buying silver tomorrow.

    MELONIE- As you know, many illegals have phony S.S. numbers and work at numerous businesses including Home Depot; Wal-Mart not to mention thousands of restaurants and construction companies, just to cite a few. Their employers have them "ON the books" and deduct FICA , withholding etc. Many of them are paid MORE than the minimum wage. They dominate construction and get anywhere from $10 to $25 an hour. What they generally don't get is union protection; overtime pay and health and safety enforcement. Therefore the Social Security Trust Fund collects BILLIONS annually from illegal workers who will never actually collect benefits and the politicians in Washington KNOW IT !

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    Default Re: Ummmmm Melonie... I am buying silver tomorrow.

    ^^^ again this is true, but the 'free' contributions each illegal alien and his employer are making to SSI pale in comparison to the former employer + employee SSI contributions of a union auto worker who had been earning $90k a year but who is now collecting unemployment. Also, the combined employer plus employee SSI contributions for each illegal alien still fall short of the dollar equivalent costs of social welfare benefits they typically consume - resulting in a net loss in terms of gov't coffers overall.

    I'm not saying that SSI isn't collecting a (temporary) windfall from SSI taxes re illegal alien employees. For a fact they are, and DC politicians certainly know about it. However, that does not alter the fact that, despite the SSI windfall, the overall costs to various pockets of the US gov't to cover social welfare benefits provided to illegal aliens are still a net drain on the US taxpayer. Doing the math, even at $10 an hour * 2000 hours at 15.3% you're looking at something in the neighborhood of $3000 per year in SSI windfall. Compare that to 15.3% of the now unemployed union auto worker's $90k annual income or $13,800. And keep in mind that the costs per illegal alien of providing medicaid, food stamps etc arguably exceed $3000 per year ( one estimate is at )

    ~
    Last edited by Melonie; 03-10-2007 at 07:22 PM.

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    Default Re: Ummmmm Melonie... I am buying silver tomorrow.

    MELONIE- I don't think unemployed auto workers lost their jobs because of illegal immigration. Rather it was a combination of foreign competition and U.S. Automakers reacting much too slowly to the increased demand for fuel efficient cars and hybrids.

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    Default Re: Ummmmm Melonie... I am buying silver tomorrow.

    ^^^ not the point. My point is that in terms of SSI tax revenue, the positive SSI contribution of one former union auto worker exceeds the SSI contribution of four or five illegal aliens. My further point is that in terms of overall balance of gov't payments, the one former union auto worker paid not only SSI but income tax and collected nothing in the way of gov't social welfare benefits. In comparison the typical illegal alien worker pays some small amount into SSI but also consumes a greater dollar cost amount in gov't social welfare benefits, resulting in a net burden on other US taxpayers despite paying money into SSI. Thus if that illegal alien were deported, the amount of money 'lost' by SSI wound be less than the amount of money 'saved' by the avoided federal + state + local social welfare benefit costs.

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