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Thread: How do we know that recent CO2 increases are due to human activities?

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    Veteran Member T-10's Avatar
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    How do we know that recent CO2 increases are due to human activities?

    An great article on the subject of CO2








    FYI- Fran Manns who is mentioned below is connected to the fossil fuels industry which pays for fake "science" not to mention I don't even think this person is PHD. The person is listed as the mananger of mining at TSX

    Other than that I found nothing else on this person besides some self published letters. Manns does not appear to be a climate science expert at all.
    Last edited by T-10; 03-17-2007 at 07:57 PM.

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    Default Re: How do we know that recent CO2 increases are due to human activities?

    ^^^ I'm glad to see that you changed your mind in regard to having made your 'last' post on the subject of global warming !

    As long as we're now quoting scientist blogs, you might read ...



    (snip)"Objection: In glacial-interglacial cycles, CO2 concentration lags behind temperature by centuries. Clearly, CO2 does not cause temperatures to rise; temperatures cause CO2 to rise.

    Answer: When viewed coarsely, historical CO2 levels and temperature show a tight correlation. However, a closer examination of the CH4, CO2, and temperature fluctuations recorded in the Antarctic ice core records reveals that, yes, temperature moved first. "(snip)

    (snip)"Cause and Effect

    That CO2 and temperature correlate - rose together - over millenia does not make CO2 the cause. Temperature rising prior to CO2 increasing may indicate causation but is not proof. CO2 has the property of inverse solubility; don't drop your Guinness.

    However, there is an alternative hypothesis. Sunspot peak frequency corrrelates 95% with temperatiure rise and coupled with the Danish CLOUD experiment, there is a case to stop the bandwagon of anthropogenic global warming before it destroys our economy.

    The effect of implimenting Kyoto would be disaster for you and yours. This is a case of needing to treat symptoms of global warming as they occur, if they are serious enough, without invoking Big Brother government to attack complex causes. The extremist model is not the only hypothesis. There are serious scientific questions. The spectal line of CO2 that is active in absorption is saturated. Additional CO2 cannot cause more warming.

    Francis T. Manns, Ph.D., P.Geo. (Ontario) "(snip)

    (snip)"If historically CO2 was caused by some external cause other than temperature, what is it?

    The rapid current rise in atmospheric CO2 is caused by a disruption in the equilibrium of the Carbon cycle. This disruption could be, in part or in majority, humans putting extra CO2 into the atmosphere.

    But it also could be, in part or in majority, the same thing that caused the previous increases in CO2.

    The speed of the CO2 increase suggests that whatever is breaking equilibrium began with the industrial age of man, but man has changed the environment in numerous ways.

    The destruction of plant life, and the dimming of the sun from pollution have certainly reduced photosynthesis.

    Perhaps our actions have somehow resulted in the destruction of vast numbers of microbial photosynthetic ocean dwelling creatures (well actually we know they have, but I mean that perhaps the die off had a orders of magnitude larger impact on CO2 than we thought).

    Absent a debunking of the default hypothesis for this graph (that Temperature increases and decreases cause increased and decreased atmospheric CO2), its not reasonable to look at the data for the past century and say "CO2 causes temperature". CO2 and temperature have both risen, this graph says that causality goes the other way."(snip)




    ~
    Last edited by Melonie; 03-17-2007 at 06:46 PM.

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    Default Re: How do we know that recent CO2 increases are due to human activities?

    and if there is any interest in following up on Dr. Manns' point that there is a 95% correlation between sunspot frequency and temperature rise, there is an article at



    from which the following sumspot frequency vs temperature graph was 'borrowed' ...





    While with the antarctic ice core vs temperature data shows that increasing CO2 levels LAG temperature increases, the sunspot frequency data shows that increasing sunspot frequency LEADS temperature increases !

    Besides the French study from which the graph was 'borrowed', data from Armagh Observatory shows the same sunspot frequency versus temperature correlation going all the way back to 1795 (Armagh Observatory is arguably the longest operating continuous record of temperature / sunspot / other scientific data available anywhere in the world).



    Besides these two 'earthbound' studies (and many other related earthbound studies) we now have additional data from other planets which, upon preliminary examination at least, also appears to support a strong correlation between solar activity and temperature.



    In fairness, there is some dissent in regard to the global warming taking place on other planets in our solar system ...

    (snip)"“Global warming on Neptune's moon Triton as well as Jupiter and Pluto, and now Mars has some [scientists] scratching their heads over what could possibly be in common with the warming of all these planets … Could there be something in common with all the planets in our solar system that might cause them all to warm at the same time?”

    Peiser included quotes from recent news articles that take up other aspects of the idea.

    “I think it is an intriguing coincidence that warming trends have been observed on a number of very diverse planetary bodies in our solar system,” Peiser said in an email interview. “Perhaps this is just a fluke.
    ”"(snip) <-- intriguing coincidence ... fluke ... something in common with all of the planets in our solar system that might cause them to warm at the same time ????

    Thus a case can easily be made that sunspot activity increases for whatever reason, CAUSING temperatures to rise via increased solar activity (add in the Danish sunspot > cosmic ray > Cloud theory at this point if you wish), which in turn CAUSES ocean waters to warm slightly and release some dissolved CO2 thus increasing CO2 levels in the atmosphere.

    Put another way, under this hypothesis rising atmospheric CO2 levels are the RESULT of naturally occuring changes in solar activity causing increased ocean water temperatures thus reducing CO2 solubility in ocean water, rather than a cause.

    Circling back on topic - if this hypothesis is true, then the altering the levels of atmospheric CO2 generated by human activities would have a far lesser effect on global temperature increase / decrease via altering the 'greenhouse effect' than the direct change in solar activity due to naturally occurring increases / decreases in sunspot activity will have. Or as Dr. Butler of Armagh Observatory put it in a very professional manner ... ""I suspect that the greenhouse lobby have under-estimated the role of solar variability in climate change"

    ~
    Last edited by Melonie; 03-17-2007 at 07:31 PM.

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    God/dess dlabtot's Avatar
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    Default Re: How do we know that recent CO2 increases are due to human activities?

    sunspots!!! Melonie you crack me up. There's never enough time to counter all the ridiculous stuff you post but it is always good for a laugh.

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    Banned Eric Stoner's Avatar
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    Default Re: How do we know that recent CO2 increases are due to human activities?

    dlabtot- You just go right ahead laughing as you give up your AC; heated home; car; YOUR AMPLIFIER and "MIKE"; hot water; all your appliances etc. just so we can decrease our CO2 output while China and India make up the difference.

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    Default Re: How do we know that recent CO2 increases are due to human activities?

    sunspots!!! Melonie you crack me up. There's never enough time to counter all the ridiculous stuff you post but it is always good for a laugh.
    The data correlation for sunspots is far, far more compelling that that of CO2. You've never heard of solar winds?
    Idealism is fine, but as it approaches reality, the costs become prohibitive.

    William F. Buckley, Jr.

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    Default Re: How do we know that recent CO2 increases are due to human activities?

    CASUAL- Don't waste your time with "dlabtot". He never lets facts get in the way of his pre-conceived notions.

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