"Thursday, April 05, 2007
"‘Unprecedented’ foreclosure activity"
From the Central Valley Business Times:
With the Central Valley leading the way, 5,316 homes were lost to foreclosure sales in March in California, according to figures compiled by Foreclosure Radar, a Discovery Bay-based foreclosure listings and software company.
The homes sold at auction last month represented a 27 percent increase from February and a 264 percent increase in the last six months, the company says. Of the $2 billion worth of properties sold in March, 4,796 went back to the lender after receiving no bids, representing $1.82 billion, it says.
While foreclosure sales are increasing throughout the state, Foreclosure Radar says there are significant regional differences.
Despite considerable news coverage of San Diego foreclosures, San Diego County ranked 15th highest with one foreclosure for every 5,668 residents in March and while Los Angeles easily ranks number one in volume each month, adjusted for population, Los Angeles County ranks 38th with one foreclosure for every 12,182 residents.
The real foreclosure leaders are in the Central Valley, the company says.
Four of the state’s top five counties for foreclosure sales last month, on a per capita basis, are in the Valley.
Sacramento County ranks first with 2,605 residents for every sale. Neighboring San Joaquin County is third, one sale for every 2,872 residents. Yuba County is fourth, at 2,909 residents per sale and Stanislaus County is fifth with 3,597 residents per sale.
Riverside County is second with 2,747 residents for every foreclosure sale, according to the company’s figures.
“Foreclosures sold at auction now account for 15 percent of all home sales in California and continue to rise,” says Sean O’Toole, CEO and founder of Foreclosure Radar. “This isn’t just a story about failing subprime lenders and their customers. At the current pace, foreclosures will be a significant part of the real estate economy. A fact which bears close scrutiny even in areas that are not yet affected.”
Foreclosure Radar says it is the only service that tracks the actual auctions of property on a daily basis. It says its data are based on individual sales results at daily foreclosure auctions throughout the state, not estimates or projections. "(snip)
from
Put another way, there are now so many homes subject to forced auction sales, and so few qualified buyers, that 90% of the (dollar value) foreclosed properties now have no takers. This of course prevents the mortgage lender (and that lender's upstream investors) from recovering any 'cash' from the defaulted mortgage. As a result, the mortgage lenders are now literally sitting on thousands of houses which they now technically own and are unable to 'cut their losses'. Gridlocked cash flow spells bankruptcy for the mortgage lenders. After that, liquidation at any price will be pushed by the bankrupt mortgage lenders' creditors (who are typically huge financial houses, pension funds, hot foreign money). When that happens it will result in 'shock and awe' in regard to how fast the assessed values of residential real estate can drop !



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