(snip)"Las Vegas has a build it and they will come casino/hotel boom underway. There are currently 11,000 new units under construction to add to the 151,000 already in place, and 35,000 more are being planned. Problem is that these Boyz may have bitten off more than they can chew: according to LVCVA, 2007 rooms occupied has been as flat as a pancake, with year to date (through March) up a scant 0.6% over last year. And the folks who are showing up, must be sticking with nickel slots, as gaming revenue for the Las Vegas MSA year to date is down 1.6%, with March being especially bad at down 3.0%. Let’s see 7.3% more units coming soon, and 3.0% drops in gaming, ought to get interesting?


ShopperTrak has April retail numbers out, and obviously the Marie Antoinettes simply can’t offset the complete collapse in traffic underway in the Brazil American and JULS community. Nordstrom’s reports after the close, and this will give us a good read on whether Bully Wannabes are dropping like flies. A lot people can’t handle April weather, or May’s either apparently, as the week of May 12th checked in light as well.

CHICAGO - May 15, 2007 - ShopperTrak RCT Corporation’s National Retail Sales Estimate (NRSE) today reported that average U.S. retail sales for the month of April increased 2.3 percent compared to the same month in 2006. Additionally, according to the ShopperTrak Retail Traffic Index (SRTI), total U.S. foot traffic decreased by 13.0 percent from the prior year. Retail sales for the week ending May 12 rose by 3.1 percent from the same period in 2006.

CNBC had Britt Beemer (see Struggling Retailers) from America’s Research Group on to explain why: has little to do with “weather”, and a lot to do with higher housing expenses, specifically mortgage payments, property taxes and insurance. ARG also has some revealing data online about the big plunge in consumer spending underway. Compare March, 2007 with March, 2006, which gives per capita comparisons by categories. For example:

Discount stores: 2007; $198.48 vs 2006; $220.53, Discount apparel: $20.35 vs. $34.40, Membership warehouse: $35.39 vs $42.11, Hardware stores: $12.65 vs $14.55

April’s container data from the Port of Los Angeles is in, and is consistent with other “reports from the field”. 368,683 loaded containers came in, versus 370,171 in April last year, which is down 0.4%. March was even worse at 323,472 versus 345,401. Rail traffic is also confirming the moving goods slow down theory, latest through May 12th, with four week average loads down 3.0% YoY."(snip)

(snip)"I did an update of the US Treasury’s tax collections for April and through the third Tuesday of May comparing both 2006 and 2007. This picks up taxes due on May 15th and constitutes the same number of days (32) for both years. Taxes not withheld (largely One Trick Pony or OTP) were up 10.0% from 197.47 billion in 2006 to 217.26 billion in 2007. Taxes withheld (employment) were up only 3.58% from 207.00 to 214.40 billion. Tax not withheld are higher than withheld for the first time in history (for the April-May period). The evidence is strong that Bubble related taxes are still carrying the day, but employment and consumer (sales) taxes are fading fast. The result of this OTP has so far resulted in much larger Treasury paydowns than normal, and a substantial reduction lately in T-bill rates. The reason is easy to ascertain, $62.56 billion extra over last year has been collected from not withheld and corporations for the fiscal year up to now. The question du jour is: can Marie Antoinettees, Riskloves, and Corporatists carry the economy alone?

On April 30 the government estimated it would pay down $145 billion issuance in April, May and June. A paydown of that size would be the third-biggest on record. During the first seven months of fiscal 2007, which began Oct. 1, the budget deficit narrowed 56 percent to $80.8 billion.

Like the Asian countries, Brazil has also been swamped with US Dollars and had gotten involved in the pegging, recycling game. Finally it appears they have relented, thus allowing a good size Real appreciation.

Brazil’s currency, the real gained nearly 1 percent to 1.965 per U.S dollar, after braking on Tuesday the psychologically important level of 2 per dollar for the first time in since February 2001. The central bank last month stepped up its interventions with large sales of reverse currency swaps and by increasing the volume of dollars in daily purchases in the spot market. But up until it offered some $1 billion in swaps on Wednesday, the bank hadn’t sold them in about a week. It has also bought fewer dollars in the spot market, traders said."(snip)

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